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- Marginal Revolution Read
Scott Beaulier interviews me, in part about Wyoming
Small Steps Toward A Much Better World
- Marginal Revolution Read
Friday assorted links
1. Gender differences in financial information processing. 2. Urban harassment of women in India. 3. The making of Roger Scruton? 4. Astra vs. Enigma. 5. Coetzee on genocide. 6. Dan Ariely update. And running for office in Israel. 7. A more sober look at the HuggingFace incident (WSJ). 8. Cass Sunstein on AI regulation and
- Marginal Revolution Read
Reimagining research papers as interactive and reliable AI agents
That is a new Nature paper by Jiacheng Miao, Joe R. Davis, Yaohui Zhang, Jonathan K. Pritchard, and James Zou. Here goes: Here we introduce Paper2Agent, an automated framework that converts research papers into artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Paper2Agent transforms research output from passive artefacts into active systems that accelerate use and discovery. Conventional research
- Marginal Revolution Read
Why Papua New Guinea is so interesting
And this leads to the most interesting part of this story: how the highlanders were so isolated for so long. I want to acknowledge that the highlanders were not completely, hermetically sealed off from the outside world – it’s just that knowledge of outside world never actually made it to them or vice versa. Over
- Marginal Revolution Read
Thursday assorted links
1. An American at Brazil’s largest rodeo. 2. Ingeborg Bachmann centenary. 3. “Huawei Technologies Co. predicted on Wednesday that global computing demand will surge 100,000-fold by 2035, with AI agents generating over 90% of network traffic.” And a report from someone who has done AI diplomacy with China (NYT). 4. “US Gov Federal Register use distilled Qwen models in their search mode.” 5. How well do financial economics papers replicate? 6.
- Marginal Revolution Read
Pandemic Preparation is AI Safety
I am not a big fan of the “now more than ever” post, which interprets recent events to support—surprise!—something the writer already believed. And yet…is it not obvious that AI risk increases the value of pandemic preparation? If COVID began with a laboratory leak—plausible, though unproven—then a research accident has already killed millions. Whatever its
- Marginal Revolution Read
My excellent Conversation with Annie Lowrey
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary: Annie Lowrey’s new book, The Time Tax, argues that the most regressive levy in American life is the hours each of us must spend on hold, in waiting rooms, and filling out forms a competent state would have pre-filled — roughly fifty a year
- Marginal Revolution Read
The correct model of AI CEO behavior
I agree with Alex that the standard model of regulatory capture does not apply here, but I think he neglects the best model we have. From my recent Free Press piece: Recently I have been reading my review copy of Kevin Roose’s excellent forthcoming book The AGI Chronicles: The Inside Story of the Race to Create an
- Marginal Revolution Read
METR, EA, and others being attacked
Always focus on what you can learn from people and groups. Criticize in ways where you can learn something from the answer (or non-answer) and from the dialogue. If you attack how people look, their sex lives, their donors, whatever, it will make the critic stupider. It may not even hurt the target of the attack, as it provides valuable publicity and also makes them look powerful. Furthermore, there is nothing per se wrong with being “weird.”
- Marginal Revolution Read
Wednesday assorted links
1. Competitive market behavior with LLMs? 2. Prophets of the Marginal Revolution. 3. The university after AI. 4. Which African nations are spending on education? 5. @mattyglesias: “In an all-or-nothing scenario, bond interest rates would go to the moon. Why lend money at 5% (or whatever) if the two options are not being repaid and stocks going through the roof?” 6. David Schleicher on how property taxes are evolving, underrated yet important ideas. Good sequence. 7.
- Marginal Revolution Read
Very good news
Michael Kremer picked as World Bank chief economist (Bloomberg). Here are many many previous MR posts on Kremer, of course Alex also worked with him on Operation Warp Speed.
- Marginal Revolution Read
What Regulatory Capture Actually Looks Like
It’s amazing how a theory can take over a brain. Consider the idea that people believe what serves their interests. As heuristics go, it’s a good one. I use it all the time. Yet when Dario Amodei says AI is dangerous, perhaps even an extinction risk, some people conclude he must be running a marketing
- Marginal Revolution Read
The economics of cyber risk
From Aniket Baksy and Daniele Caratelli, here is part of the abstract: Because larger firms are more attractive targets but also invest more in protection, the model generates an inverse-U relationship between firm size and attack risk, consistent with the data. Introducing cyber risk reduces firm entry by 3.6 percent, aggregate productivity by 0.6 percent, and total output by 1.8 percent. These effects arise from general equilibrium adjustments in entry, firm size, and spillovers that are absent in typical partial-equilibrium analyses.
- Marginal Revolution Read
When discussing AI policy, start with China
Whatever your ideas for regulating AI, I say start with China. Do not put China as an afterthought at the end of your proposal, mentioned in a vague wish that something good ought to happen and that maybe the future of humanity can be secured. During the 2023 U.S.-China nuclear talks, America proposed missile-launch notifications,
- Marginal Revolution Read
Callum Williams on cybersecurity prices
Share prices of cyber firms have jumped around a lot in recent weeks, leading one side or the other to claim victory. But the crucial point is that, relative to the historical norm, the market is not really pricing ANYTHING big to change. There was a much bigger move in cyber stocks in both 2020-22
- Marginal Revolution Read
Tuesday assorted links
1. Easy to bioengineer a very dangerous virus? 2. The astrophysicists are getting antsy too. Princeton is also getting nervous. If nothing else, these are huge PR own goals. The guy is a Mill scholars, can you imagine J.S. Mill tweeting that way? 3. New David Brooks podcast. 4. One Chinese view of AI risk.
- Marginal Revolution Read
The striking thing is how late the market moved
Here’s the S&P 500 (daily close) with the key COVID and policy events marked; the numbered key is below the chart. Event key: Dec 31 – China reports the Wuhan pneumonia cluster to the WHO Jan 21 – First confirmed US case (Washington state) Jan 23 – Wuhan locked down Jan 30 – WHO declares
- Marginal Revolution Read
Those new service sector jobs
Horwitz is in the business of playing a version of mom for local college students. Concierge companies offering student support have existed for decades. But in recent years, a new crop of upstarts — such as Horwitz’s company, MindyKnows; the Bama Mama in Alabama; the GA Mom in Georgia; and Campus Mom in Texas — have met additional demand from a new generation of worried parents
- Marginal Revolution Read
Did the ACA reduce mortality?
Many of us brought up related points at the time, but basically we were booed off the reservation: While recent research has provided evidence that the Medicaid expansions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) reduced mortality, there is no evidence on the effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) net of the Medicaid expansions on
- Marginal Revolution Read
Monday assorted links
1. Will driverless cars increase or reduce urban density? 2. One decomposition approach to why interest rates have been going up. 3. New Guinness record holders. 4. Is there any chance of finding Rembrandt DNA? 5. “Abundance Corps is hosting Making Progress, a private gathering for students interested in how science, technology, and institutions can
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